Zelensky’s Fatal Miscalculation. Russians Stall in Istanbul.

Street protests break Ukrainian internal unity. Third round of negotiations in Istanbul accomplished nothing.

(Trump and Zelensky in my daybook May 2025)

The third round of peace negotiations between the Ukrainians and Russians has (very predictably) concluded with no results. This was the third formal face-to-face meeting between the two sides in as many months. On this occasion, the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul was led by Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak. The Kremlin remains uninterested in a face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Putin. Neither do the Russians want a full ceasefire or even a temporary ceasefire. Or even an agreement to cease striking Ukrainian cities and civilian targets.

The Russians still intend to see how much more Ukrainian territory they will be able to seize. They are gambling that their summer offensive will meet with even more success. That is before the conclusion of the 50-day deadline that they negotiated with the Trump administration. Thus, forty days remain on the clock until the imposition of Trump’s "severe" tariffs and the promised “secondary” sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. Russian gas imports have been conspicuously left out of the threats. The Europeans still rely on Russian gas. Typically, the most that comes out of these meetings is the exchange of POWs and remains of fallen soldiers.

Speaking of Mr. Yermak, his relations with the Trump administration appear to have become strained. My sources within the Trump administration have informed me that Yermak is widely disliked in some quarters, which rendered his June trip to the White House essentially pointless.

The shadow cardinal of Bankova Street has just been profiled (again) in the FT:

“The burly man standing at Zelenskyy’s left shoulder in that [famous video outside of the Presidential Administration] video is not a household name, although he appears in countless images, almost always within arm’s length of the president. In a photo taken at a peace summit in Switzerland in June 2024, he stands front and centre, towering over the dozens of world leaders in attendance, and all but obscuring US vice-president Kamala Harris, who cranes her head to be seen. (“I don’t know how the fuck he did that and how we let that happen,” one US official said of the photo.) But among Ukrainians, foreign leaders and diplomats, he is a person of immense and polarizing influence.”

My friend Timofiy Mylovanov, a former minister under Zelensky, tweeted that Yermak is “second only to Zelenskyy — but he is unelected, unaccountable, and more powerful than most ministers. He makes battlefield calls, picks ministers, negotiates with the U.S., China, and even Russia.”

My collage painting from battle of Bakhmut 2023.

In the meantime, organized street protests have erupted in Ukraine for the first time in 1250 days. That is despite martial curfew and a ban on protests during war time. The Zelensky administration had made a tremendous political mistake.

On Tuesday, the Ukrainian parliament quickly pushed through a bill that would hand over control of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) as well as another specialized office for anti-corruption prosecution over to the office of the General Prosecutor (PGO). The PGO is appointed by the Ukrainian President and answers to his office, while the NABU structure is led by an independent Director. That Director is appointed to a five-year term and is essentially independent. There is no way to remove him other than by parliament taking away funding for the structure(s). The forging of these independent anti-corruption agencies was seen as one of the main successes of the Western-backed support for Ukraine. They have been widely touted as a success. Various observers have speculated that the attempt to neuter the anti-corruption offices was spearheaded by Mr. Yermack. The administration does have a marked tendency towards centralization and consolidation of power.

The Ukrainian Parliament swiftly voted on the law. There were clear indications that the Presidential Administration was disciplining its parliamentary fraction to push the process faster. The way the law was (seen to be) rammed through the Rada also contributed to the public outcry against it. For the first time since martial law was declared at the start of the war, vigorous street demonstrations broke out in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. These were led by very, very young people. Some of the protestors did not look like they were old enough to vote for (or against) the MPs they were protesting against. In my own home town of Odessa, thousands of rosy cheeked youth marched down Deribaskavskaya Street singing the national anthem.

It is striking how young the protestors against the law are. As well as how few of them it took for the Zelensky government to reverse course.

Zelensky himself won a landslide victory in 2019 with his promises to be tough on corruption. He quickly backed down in the face of the demonstrations. Addressing the nation, he pronounced his hopes that the peace opportunity for a ceasefire in Istanbul would not be wasted. Yesterday, Zelensky relented to intense public (and international) pressure. He walked back the ill-timed attempts to consolidate Presidential control over the bodies. On Wednesday, in a video address during which Zelensky looked composed and serious, he explained that he would allow for the tabling of a new parliamentary bill that would roll back the charges. He promised to reverse course.

This was the first serious outpouring of public anger in the streets since the start of the war. The Ukrainian people have kept tremendous social and emotional discipline throughout the course of the war. Even those Ukrainians who actively despise Zelensky and his government knew that displays of public discontent would embolden the Russians. The Ukrainian government has called for unity—but the political damage is severe.

It is likely that the Zelensky administration had not predicted the scope of either the internal or international fallout of the move. The episode represents his administration coming full circle—with the same younger demographics that catapulted him to power 6 years ago now turning on him. It also no longer seems possible that Zelensky could win a postwar reelection campaign. The quick manner in which civil society was able to mobilize and shame a war time government into changing course is also very impressive, and showcases Ukrainian social and political values.